A couple of thoughts on North Korea’s recent missile launch:
1. Rather than a sign of the North being up to its old tricks, agreeing with the U.S. one minute, then ‘crazily’ breaking the agreement in order to launch a missile the next, the confusion is likely a sign of factional struggle and lack of clear leadership in Pyongyang. One silo group, more technocratic and concerned with food shortages, pushed for the food aid agreement with the U.S. and got it. Another group, more military and ideological, pushed for the test, regardless of any agreement. This group also got what it wanted. A lack of clear guidance from the top allowed the second group to cancel out the work of the first. A sign of new, confused leadership still trying to navigate (rather than manage or dictate to) the various entrenched factions of NK’s government, not a sign of craziness or some nefarious plot to make the U.S. look bad.